Soccer Betting Markets
Soccer Accumulator Bonus Up to 70% bonus for accumulators on a wide range of selected leagues and competitions. Applies to pre-match accumulators of 3+ selections on standard Full Time Result, Both Teams To Score or Result/Both Teams To Score markets only. Soccer features a massive range of markets and betting options. Our soccer betting strategies can drastically increase your chances of making a profit in soccer betting. Multiple sportsbook accounts. Classical 3-way betting (also described as 1X2 or FT betting) has remained the top choice for punters around the world. Other popular football markets include total number of goals (over /under betting). #1 Soccer Betting Guide - Reviews, Tips, Bonuses and Promotions! Somewhere right now there is a soccer match being played, and the beauty of soccer betting online or via mobile device is that you are going to be able to bet on a huge number of the soccer matches no matter in which country they are being played and no matter at what time they are being played.
Given its worldwide popularity, it comes as no surprise that soccer is the biggest sport in terms of bet volume at Pinnacle. With hundreds of matches to bet on every week and countless available markets for each match, some bettors could benefit from guidance when it comes to soccer betting. Continue reading to find out everything you need to know about soccer betting.
Soccer markets managed by the exchange betting firms are suspended when a significant event occurs. This generally means a goal, penalty or sending off as these events will have a substantial bearing on.
How to bet on soccer
Two teams of 11 players (with a varying number of substitutions allowed in different competitions) compete in a soccer match. A match takes place on a 45-90m x 90-120m pitch and lasts 90 minutes (two 45-minute halves) - unless the competition format requires extra-time (two 15-minute halves) or penalties to decide the match.
The aim of soccer is simple, score more goals than your opponent to win the match. In terms of soccer betting, however, there are various markets to look at and different outcomes to bet on that aren’t just decided by the result of a match.
Soccer betting: Basic bet types
The three most common bet types in soccer betting are similar to those you will find in most other sports. Handicap and Totals in soccer betting is exactly the same as others, while the match outcome (1X2) is soccer’s equivalent to the Money Line in baseball betting.
1X2
As mentioned above, the 1X2 market refers to the match outcome. A home win (1), a draw (X) or an away win (2) are the three available options - the only difference to Money Line betting is the draw (this is because standard soccer matches aren’t settled by going into overtime and simply end as a draw).
Handicap
Handicap betting in soccer is similar to predicting the outcome of the match but it involves a goal “handicap” that has been applied by the bookmaker to counter the perceived difference in abilities between the two teams. The favourites in the 1X2 market will have a negative handicap to overcome, while the underdog will have a positive handicap advantage.
The use of data and application of mathematical principles can help bettors calculate their own probability and produce expected outcomes.
Because soccer is a low-scoring sport, the handicap offered in soccer betting is usually much lower than NFL betting and NBA betting (only in a real mismatch contest will the handicap be more than three goals).
In order for a handicap bet to win, the team with the negative handicap must win by a greater margin than the figure set. The team with the positive handicap must win or lose by a smaller margin than the handicap figure.
Totals
Totals betting in soccer has nothing to do with who wins the match - it is simply betting on whether the number of goals scored will be over or under a figure set by the bookmaker. The totals market (often referred to as the Over/Under) usually refers to the combined total of goals scored by both sides, but individual team totals and first-half totals are also an option.
Other available markets
Once bettors understand the basics of how to bet on soccer, these skills can be transferred from pre-game betting to live soccer betting. The bet types and how they work are exactly the same in live betting but are just being applied to a match that has already started.
There are also other available markets outside the more traditional options. Bettors can place bets on how many corners will be awarded in a game, while cards betting is based on the total number of cards given to both sides.
In addition to markets that involve a single match, bettors can also bet on various outright markets. These range from competition winners, who will score the most goals in a competition, which team will get relegated and how many points an individual team will win over an entire season.
Developing a soccer betting strategy
We know what kind of form a team is in, if they have any injuries and more often than not, what kind of tactics they will employ in a match. However, bettors will need to build on this most basic knowledge if they are to make money from soccer betting.
Before delving into complex predictive models, some basic data analysis can go a long way to improving results in soccer betting. Bettors can quantify such claims as “they play better at home” by analysing home field advantage and using it to calculate their own odds to compare against those produced by the bookmaker.
- Learn how to calculate home field advantage.
Although soccer is inherently random and notoriously hard to predict - even for a bookmaker - historical performances and past statistics can help provide an edge in soccer betting. Whether you’re trying to predict a draw, betting on both teams to score or analysing expected goals, data can certainly be used to your advantage.
Why maths is important in soccer betting
As shown by David Sumpter in Soccermatics, the application of mathematics in soccer can help improve our understanding of how the game works (and ultimately how to make more efficient betting decisions). From Elo ratings to regression analysis, a basic grasp of maths is essential if you want to make money from soccer betting.
There are plenty out there who claim to have a winning formula but bettors should learn how to measure tipster performance before buying into their success.
Maths can be used to calculate whether you should place a bet or not (whether it has positive expected value) as well as how much you should stake per bet. The use of staking methods will help optimise your bankroll in soccer betting but maths can also help improve your chances of making a profit in other ways.
Double chance betting involves betting on multiple outcomes within the same match. While it might reduce the amount of profit you would make for simply betting on a team to win, it also provides you with a profit for another match outcome - either a draw or the opposition win.
- Learn how to calculate stakes for Double Chance betting.
Slightly more advanced formulas, like the Poisson distribution, can be used to translate mean averages into a probability for variable outcomes across a distribution - such as the score of a soccer match.
The use of data and application of mathematical principles can help bettors calculate their own probability (which should then be converted into odds to compare against bookmakers’) and produce expected outcomes. This can be taken a step further by using Monte Carlo simulations to produce distributions of possible outcome values.
Be wary of soccer betting tipsters
While soccer betting appears to be much more complex than the sport itself, this guide should have helped you understand what it takes to start making consistent profits. There are plenty out there who claim to have a winning formula but bettors should learn how to measure tipster performance before buying into their success.
The Green Lumber Fallacy highlights the blurred line between expert sporting knowledge and expert betting knowledge. Making a profit from betting on soccer takes time, effort and patience, following tipsters or self-proclaimed “experts” might seem like an easy option, but it won’t be worthwhile in the long run.
Betfair.com is the biggest sports betting exchange. In Betfair the players bet against each other and not against the Betfair itself. Because of this, the stakes ratios are higher here than anywhere else. Another difference is that in the betting exchange you can not only buy stakes, but also sell them, which opens up new money earning possibilities – sports trading.
The idea behind it is the same as in the currency, stock and product markets – to buy cheaper and sell at a higher price. The difference is that the ratio is affected by the performance of the team or the sportsman.
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Football is the world’s most popular type of sports. Numerous football games take place every day in various countries of the world. To make the games more interesting, trading exchanges offer to predict the outcomes of the games and place bets on them.
Betfair.com also offers this opportunity, as well as a chance to trade or speculate with the stakes. The aim of the trading is to create a situation when, no matter what the outcome of the match is, you are still the winner. The main goal of sports trading is to create a situation when you are in profits no mater what the outcome is. Let`t get to the point!
Here are are 6 proven and profitable Betfair exchange Football trading strategies:
Soccer Betting Markets
The simplest football trading strategy
Lay The Draw is the most popular Betfair football trading system. This Strategy is mostly used by beginners. If you apply this strategy to the correct type of match, you are almost guaranteed to profit 100% of the time.
The Strategy
The concept of this strategy is very simple – when a goal is scored in a football match, the prices of all the match outcomes (home win, away win or draw) changes. How it changes depends on many factors such as which team scores the goal and the time of the goal.
In this strategy we are trying to lay the draw before the kick-off, and back it at higher price after goal is scored, therefore securing a great profit.
Before the game: Select match by the following criteria:
- Favorite odds is lower than 2;
- Odds on draw is lower than 4;
- In last 3 games there haven`t been 0-0 draw for none of the teams;
- The favorite team scores more than one goal in match on average;
- Head-to-Head between the teams indicates lots of goal (should be within the last two years);
- The liquidity in the market should be at least 40 000.
Iowa Betting Market
In-Play:
- If the favorite team scores first, get out of position and green up;
- If the underdog scores first, use the “Metaltone” strategy: back the draw for 50% initial lay stake and lay the underdog for 75% initial lay stake. If there is an equalizing goal, you can then green up an take an overall profit. If there is no equalizing goal and the underdog wins the match, accept the loss (or in some cases small profit) that is sitting on the underdog team and move on to the next game;
- If still 0-0 when the draw price hits 2.0, “red” up and accept the loss.
A Score Grid visualization of this football trading strategy
Socrates strategy is a variation of the Aristotle and Clint strategies. It is designed to maximize profits and reduce the losses and does not require a lot of in play management.
Why this strategy works?
Using exact match selection criteria as in the Aristotle and Clint strategies, the Socrates becomes a simple trading strategy for beginners to implement. We take our positions in the market at the start of the match and only need to make any moves if the score is 0-0, or 1-0 after 60 minutes. Because of its simplicity it is possible to trade multiple matches at the same time.
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The edge in this strategy lies in the selection of right matches, the probability of teams scoring over 2.5 goals and how often these teams play a match where Both Teams are scoring a goal.
In this trade we are looking to win in two markets – Both Teams To Score and over 2.5 goals market to maximize our winnings.
In matches where one side scores 6 goals are often a consolation goal to loosing team which would give us double win.
How this strategy is played?
We are looking for football matches where the odds of Both Teams To Score and Over 2.5 goals markets are over 1.80.
In this strategy bets are placed pre-match. Let’s look at example, using 100 euro stake:
- € 40 back bet on Both Teams To Score YES market at odds of 1.80 or more;
- € 40 back bet on over 2.5 goals market at odds of 1.80 or more;
- € 8 back bet on Correct Score 0-0;
- € 12 back bet on Correct Score 1-1.
Correct score grid visualization of Socrates Betfair trading strategy
Bets and odds for Socrates strategy implementation
In the images above you can see a Correct score visualization of outcomes of this strategy. As we can see, the ROI if the bet lands is almost 50%, which is quite a lot.
You do not have to do any adjustments, unless the scoreline is 0-0 or 1-0 after 60 played minutes.
If the scoreline is 0-0 at 60 minute mark, green up 0-0 scoreline and scratch 1-1 scoreline. You will also have to take a hedged red on over/under 2.5 goals and Both Teams To Score markets.
If the scoreline is 1-0 then green up 1-1 scoreline, and make a scratch trade on over 2.5 goals market and take a loss onBoth Teams To Score market.
Any other scoreline will give us an edge in this trade. If the scoreline does not change until 80 minutes then we need to take a look at it and make some adjustment if needed.
At that moment we can exit the trade or stay in it with a hope of win on 1-1 scoreline, over 2.5 or Both Teams To Score. Ideal would be a win in both markets – Over 2.5 goals and BTTS.
What can go wrong?
The downside in this strategy is 0-0 scoreline or two goals scored by one team. We can take an extra insurance position on 0-0 for a winnings of € 50. We can also take a small cover on 2-0 scoreline by backing 2-0 and 3-0 when the score is 1-0.
This is one of the most popular trading strategy on Betfair exchange. Over/Under 2.5 goals market is right next to the Match odds market in terms of liquidity. This Betfair trading strategy is based on teams scoring Over 2.5 goals and that happens a lot!
The strategy
Using this strategy we will use two markets Over/under 2.5 goals market and Correct score market for cover.
Under 2.5 means, we’d expect 2 or less goals
Over 2.5 means, we need to see at least 3 goals in the match.
This strategy is low-risk, because if the favorite scores at least 1 goal, we will be at non-lose point or scratch. Then we will have to wait only for 2 more goals for profit. But this strategy is not for newbies at it requires certain ability to adapt and trade in two different markets at the same time.
Before the game
- Look for games where there is a favorite priced 1.4-1.7;
- Odds on over 2.5 goals are 1.7 or higher
Bets
- Back bet on over 2.5
- Back bets on Correct scores 1-0, 2-0, 1-1. These bets must cover losses on Over/Under 2.5 goals market.
Bets on Correct score market looks like this
As we can see if score turns 1-0 we cant lose anymore as next possible scores are covered (1-1, 2-0) and other possible scores are over 2.5 goals which means profit. If the favourite scores first goal early in the game, we can exit the trade with profit without waiting the game to end. If the odds on over 2.5 goals are higher, we can make a small bet on 0-2 in favor to underdog.
Correct score grid example of over 2.5 goals trading strategy on Betfair
Correct score grid view is one of the ways how to see the full picture of Betfair trading strategies. There is a software called Betpractice ScoreGrid, where you can see on which scorelines you will win and on which loose.
In this example you can see that if the favorite team scores a goal, then we have guaranteed a scratch trade. The only dangerous results are 0-0, 0-1 and 0-2, which are quite unlikely to happen. If wee look at the ROI figures for this football trade, then it is only 18% if there is over 2.5 goals in the match.
What can go wrong?
Of course scoreline 0-0 is the worst, where we loose all our bets in both markets. Therefore if you are watching the game and favorite is not at the best form and score at the halftime is 0-0 it is advised to leave the markets with a loss. Another option is to place a bet from the potential profit on scoreline 0-0. The odds on 0-0 will be shortened to about 4.0. By doing this, the only dangerous scoreline will be 0-1 in favor to underdog.
Summary
Over 2.5 goals is a great strategy for games where you are expecting goals. By the way, you only need one goal for strong favorite and you are in the safe spot! The potential profit is not huge – about 30% of the liability, but if you choose the right games, you will be in long term profits!
The Aristotle trading strategy is Over 2.5 goals market Football trading strategy with insurance positions in correct score market and Under 1.5 goals market.
Why this strategy works?
By doing a statistical research on the probability of over 2.5 goals scored in a football game and entering the market when the odds of over 2.5 goals are in our side.
How this strategy is played?
We’re looking for matches where there is a good statistical chance of both teams scoring, yet a price on over 2.5 goals of at least @1.90 (ideally higher). Where the price of over 2.5 is lower than @1.7 there is no value for us so we must wait to get involved.
In this strategy bets are placed pre-match. Let’s look at example, using 100 euro stake:
- € 58 (or 58% of the stake) back bet on Over 2.5 goals;
- € 14 (or 14% of the stake) back bet on 1-1;
- € 28 (or 28% of the stake) back bet on under 1.5 goals.
This is how pre-match bets on Aristotle trading strategy looks like
In the Correct Score grid above you can see how pr-game bets looks on this strategy. As you will have to implement moves in play, we can not calculate the probable ROI of this trade.
If there will be no goals scored early in the game, the odds of under 1.5 goals market will lower – that will create a profit to cover some of the potential loss on over 2.5 goals which, logically will be moving against us.
From the 23th minute of the game we should green ip Under 1.5 goals market as the first goals statistically are scored from the 24th minute of a match most often.
When the first goal is scored, a part of liability from over 2.5 goals market can be removed, and when the second goal is scored we can already hedge out for a profit.
If the underdog team scores the first goal we can place a lay bet off half our stake on 1-1 in order to reduce our liability on other scores to € 7.
If the result becomes 1-1 we can then lay off one more time for around € 25 to create a scratch on 1-1 and € 20 on all other scorelines.
When a football match goes as expected we can get a solid return of 20-80% of invested money.
Match Selection criteria:
If you want to make money on Betfair Football markets, then you will need to match the right football games with the right trading strategies.
To select the games for this strategy we use following criteria:
- Home team: Average goals scored, conceded, combined average, percentage of Over 2.5 goal games, percentage of Under 2.5, strength of attack and defense
- Away team: Average goals scored, conceded, combined average, percentage of Over 2.5 goal games, percentage of Under 2.5, strength of attack and defense
Then the combined average score and the probability of over 2.5 goals is calculated
In match-ups where the calculated probably is more than 60% we will have a qualified game for trading and will look for odds of the right value to recommend a trade.
What can go wrong?
A dreaded 0-0 draw will make us loos all our stake. We can make an insurance bet on 0-0 or Under 0.5 goal markets for a half of our stake.
In this Betfair football trading strategy we are looking for a strong home side and odds of Over 2.5 goals market of 1.90 or more (ideally – 2.00 to 2.10) and Under 1.5 goals market is 3.60 or more.
The ideal scenario in this strategy is that both teams scores a goal, perfectly the game ends with 2-1 or 2-2.
You should also look in H2H statistics for recent games that has had goals and 1-1 games.
Bets in this strategy are placed before the game starts.
This trading strategy similar to the Aristotle strategy as the returns are 20 to 80% return if the game goes our way.
How this strategy is played:
In this strategy bets are placed pre-match. Let’s look at example, using 100 euro stake:
- € 60 back bet on Over 2.5 goals market;
- € 10 back bet on Correct score 1-1 (sometimes you may split 1-1 and 2-0 to favorite and stake 50-50);
- € 10 back bet on Under 1.5 goals market;
- € 20 back bet on Correct Scores 2-1 and 2-2 (you may back only 2-2, if both sides are evenly strong).
In Clint football strategy the over of 2.5 goals market should be at least 1.90. In some games, where the Scoreline 2-0 seems quite possible you can split the 1-1 and 2-0 Correct score cover bets.
Correct score grid example of The Clint Betfair trading strategy
As you can see in Correct score grid example above, the most dangerous scores in this strategy are 2-0 and 0-2. If the result becomes 1-1 at some point of the game, then we are in a really comfortable trading position as the maximum loss is only 10% of our stake, but probable profit is 200%.
This strategy can be very profitable if you can choose the right games to trade!
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Usually Over/Under bets are placed on 2.5 goals market. This Betfair trading strategy is based on Over 1.5 goals market, which is a more reliable market to place bets, because you will need only two goals in the game to win this bet.
The strategy
In this strategy we will be trading Football under 1.5 goals market.
Under 1.5 goals means, that there will be 0 or 1 goals,
Over 1.5 goals means, that there needs to be 2 or more goals scored in the match.
In this strategy the bets are placed only when the game has started or in-play, but never before the game.
Soccer Betting Predictions
The odds of Under 1.5 goals market tends to raise fast.
On average the odds for Over 1.5 goals are 1.30 or more before the match.
That is not enough to make a profit in long term. That is why you should not enter the market before the game. Sit back and just observe the match. Each minute without a goal will raise the odds.
After 15 minutes in the game, the odds should be at about 1.45.
After 30 minutes in the game the odds should be about 1.70 and if the first half will be goalless the odds usually will rise to 2.0 or more.
And that is what we are looking for! At this time we are going to place our bet.
You can place your bet in the 40. minute of the game if you want or you can wait till the half time. The later you will place your bet, the bigger your profits will be.
When the goal will be scored, the odds will drop significantly, usually back to 1.50 or less, if the goal will be scored till the 60th minute of the game. Then we can immediately trade out for an overall profit.
The time of the first goal will determine the profits. If the first goal will be scored between 46th and 55th minute then profits should be around 50% of bet amount. And it happens regularly!
In this strategy we are looking to place our bets after 30th minute of the game ,remember that.
After this time have passed without goals, check the odds of Over 1.5 goals market and if they are 1.50 or more make your bet.
For extra security, you can also check the in-play statistics.
If the last matches of teams have gone over 2.5 goals for both sides or at least the home side, make a bet.
If the goal is scored in the first 10 minutes of the game, this strategy is not suitable anymore.
Summary
This is a great universal betting strategy. The only minus is that you will have to follow the games – you’ll have to watch the games on your mobile phone or in some live-stream or at least keep an eye of live-scores and that will take a lot of time.
Recap of this strategy:
- Bet on over 1,5 goals market instead of 2,5 goals;
- Analyze games and bet only on the games that are predicted for over 2,5 goals;
- Do not place bets until the odds for Over 1,5 goals are at least1,50 or more;
- If the goal is scored till 60 minutes of the game, after you have placed a bet, you will make profit if you green up. You can also leave the bet and wait for one more goal.