Double Or Nothing Betting Strategy
This is a companion video to the Smart Poker Study Podcast episode #233. I demonstrate strategies I learned from 'Poker Satellite Strategy' by Dara O'Kearney. If you would choose to wait until the market goes 250 pips away from you before you double the position and re-target 250, the Market would have to go FIVE THOUSAND pips against you with ZERO bounces of 250 pips AFTER you already bought low or sold high in order for you to lose 20 times in a row like the gentleman in that article suggests.
- Double Or Nothing Betting Strategy Tactics
- Double Or Nothing Betting Strategy Odds
- Double Or Nothing Betting Strategy
On May 25th, 2019 AEW debuted with Double or Nothing. It was the first show of a brand new wrestling company, the first company to bring a real challenge to WWE since the death of WCW, and one of the biggest non-WWE shows in years. The show sold out in 30 minutes and got nearly 100,000 buys. The success of the show changed the wrestling world and one year later, AEW is back with Double or Nothing in a completely different world.
The show was set to take place at the MGM Grand in Las Vegas just like last year’s show, but it ended up being moved to the empty arena Daily’s Place thanks to the events of the world. AEW has done a good job of making their sure still feel alive during the age of empty arenas and this show should be no different.
Listen to the Going Over: Bet Pro Wrestling Podcast episode about AEW Double or Nothing 2020. Available wherever you get your podcasts.
There are two main Double or Nothing poker strategies: 1) Take a lot of risks right from the beginning. Play very aggressively to try and gather as many chips as possible. You'll be taking advantage of your opponents' fear since most people are usually pretty tight in these tournaments. Snargan, an enterprising Skeith who works as Meridell Castle's treasurer, has invited you to play Double or Nothing. To begin the game, click the coin on the page to bet 10 NP and flip it. If the coin lands on the Heads side, your current jackpot will double and you will be given a choice: flip the coin again to double your winnings, or leave.
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The show will see the crowning of the first ever AEW TNT Champion as well with Cody taking on Lance Archer in the finals of the tournament. The issue has gotten personal between the two so there is a lot more at stake than simply the TNT Championship. In another championship match, Nyla Rose will defend the AEW Women’s Championship match against Hikaru Shida. The show will also see the first ever “Casino Ladder Match” with the winner earning a future shot at the AEW World Championship.
AEW Double or Nothing 2020 Betting Tips:
Double Or Nothing Betting Strategy Tactics
Odds from 888Sport.
- MJF (-910) vs. Jungle Boy (+450)
- Britt Baker D.M.D. (-250) vs. Kris Statlander (+175)
- Best Friends (-150) vs. Private Party (+108)
- Casino Ladder Match: Darby Allin vs. Colt Cabana vs. Orange Cassidy vs. Rey Fénix vs. Scorpio Sky vs. Kip Sabian vs. Frankie Kazarian vs. Luchasaurus vs. ???
- Stadium Stampede: The Inner Circle (-150) vs. Matt Hardy & The Elite (+108)
- AEW Women’s Championship: Nyla Rose (-167) vs. Hikaru Shida (+120)
- AEW TNT Championship: Lance Archer (-177) vs. Cody (+125)
- AEW World Championship: Jon Moxley (-625) vs. Brodie Lee (+350)
Odds from BetOnline.
- MJF (-150) vs. Jungle Boy (+110)
- Britt Baker D.M.D. (-300) vs. Kris Statlander (+200)
- Best Friends (-150) vs. Private Party (+108)
- Casino Ladder Match: Darby Allin (+175) vs. Colt Cabana (+900) vs. Orange Cassidy (+700) vs. Rey Fénix (+400) vs. Scorpio Sky (+1000) vs. Kip Sabian (+1000) vs. Frankie Kazarian (+1000) vs. Luchasaurus (+1200) vs. ??? (+275)
- Stadium Stampede: The Inner Circle (-180) vs. Matt Hardy & The Elite (+140)
- AEW Women’s Championship: Nyla Rose (-200) vs. Hikaru Shida (+150)
- AEW TNT Championship: Lance Archer (-150) vs. Cody (+110)
- AEW World Championship: Jon Moxley (-250) vs. Brodie Lee (+170)
The Best Friends take on Private Party on the Buy-In pre-show. Best Friends have been on fire during the pandemic and have really been climbing up the rankings. While Private Party haven’t been around much due to quarantine. Best Friends are 6-3 in 2020 while Private Party is 3-1. This one is a coin-flip for me.
MJF is coming off a win against Cody and faces Jungle Boy tonight. It feels like MJF would’ve been in a much bigger match in a non-pandemic world, like against Moxley level, and that is what is probably making him such a huge favorite here. This should be a really fun match, but I see little doubt that MJF gets the win here.
Britt Baker and Kris Statlander is an interesting match-up as Britt Baker has been one of the hottest stars in the world of wrestling over the past several months. She’s done that without a whole lot of actual winning which surprised me to see her as such a big favorite here. That said, you do have to strike when the iron is hot and the iron is definitely hot with Baker right now.
The Casino Ladder match will see two participants start with a new entrant coming out every 90 seconds. Scorpio Sky seems like the favorite here, but that mystery man is really going to mess things up. What if it’s a huge star debuting? What if it’s Cody trying to get an AEW World title shot?
Hikaru Shida and Nyla Rose is a tough one for me. Rose won the title in February, but thanks to the pandemic it feels like she hasn’t really defended it much at all. Hikaru Shida has been one of the most consistent performers in AEW’s women’s division with a 13-5 overall record. This match will be no disqualification and no countout which definitely favors Rose.
Lance Archer is a -177 favorite against Cody, but I am surprised it is not a whole lot higher. Archer has been an absolute monster since his debut and it is way too early in his run for him to be defeated. Cody has shown he can take a loss and not lose his place in the pecking order either, so I am all over Archer here.
Another reason I can’t see Archer losing is because the other unstoppable monster in AEW, Brodie Lee, is absolutely going to lose here. Jon Moxley is making his first huge defense of the title and I can’t imagine him losing it here to a guy fresh off of a WWE run. Mox is an enormous favorite and he should justify that with a win here.
The Stadium Stampede match between the Elite and Inner Circle could absolutely main event this show. I could see them doing the whole unsanctioned thing in order to get it into that slot as it is likely to be so crazy that it is hard to top. The Inner Circle are favored here, but I’m wondering if this match will actually end up being the blow-off that Blood & Guts was meant to be.
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Welcome to our Double or Nothing tournament strategy guide. As the name suggests, a double or nothing sit and go is a tournament in which half the players double up their buy in and half the players get nothing. Despite PokerStars axing this format of SNG, they still remain a popular type of poker tournament on many sites including Party Poker, Red Kings and William Hill.
Double or Nothing – Flat payout structure
In most online poker tournaments the prize awarded to each player increases based on their finishing position. In double or nothing SNGs though each player that finishes in the money receives the same prize, regardless of how many chips they finish the tournament with. In this way they are similar to satellites to larger tournaments and as such, also require some changes to normal SNG strategy. Survival is key, not chip accumulation.
Double or Nothing Strategy Overview
Double Or Nothing Betting Strategy Odds
In poker tournaments you gain equity by either gaining chips or by other players knocking each other out. Most fish don’t consider the latter and still try to accumulate chips without taking into account ICM. In double or nothings (DONs) the flat payout structure means you need to have a large advantage in a hand to justify playing a large pot.
Double or Nothing Strategy – Early stages
The above remains true in the early stages of the tournament. To illustrate why this is the case let’s take a look at an example.
You are playing a $20, 10 man double or nothing SNG. Each player begins the tournament with 1500 chips and $20 in equity. Now suppose you get all in versus one opponent and double up to 3000 chips. Has your equity doubled? Not even close. Your equity only jumps by 56% up to $31.22.
This means that you should avoid playing big pots unless your hand has a big equity advantage over your opponents range. In the above example where everyone has equal chips and you are all in against a player you need to have at least a 64% advantage just to break even in tournament equity terms. As you need to win nearly 2 out of every 3 all-ins you should clearly avoid any coin flips or close spots.
Double or Nothing Strategy – Middle stages
As the blinds increase, losing any pot starts to become very costly. This means you shouldn’t be calling raises unless you think you are well ahead of your opponents range. The incentive to steal blinds also increases though as each steal starts to add a significant amount to your stack. Against tight opponents you should start to try more blind steals to maintain or increase your stack size.
Double or Nothing Strategy – Late stages and bubble
Double Or Nothing Betting Strategy
In the late stages your strategy should be based solely on survival. Your decisions will largely be affected by the remaining chip stacks and the position and size of the blinds. To call an all-in your standards should be even higher than our example from the early stages where you needed to be a 64% favourite to break even.
To see why let’s take a look at another example where you are in the same $20, 10 handed DON with 6 players remaining and by some miracle everyone has even stacks of 2500. Here everyone has $33.33 equity in the tournament. Suppose you now get the chance to call an all-in. The prize is $40 so winning the all-in and doubling up to 5000 chips will increase your equity by just $6.67, but if you should lose the all-in you will lose $33.33 in equity. This means that you are risking $33.33 to win just $6.67 therefore you need to have an 83.3% advantage over your opponents range to justify calling the all-in.
When facing a raise, especially an all-in, your default should be to fold. There are exceptions of course. You may be sitting there with aces against an opponent who is shoving any two cards, in which case your hand has the necessary equity advantage. If you have a very small or very large stack your decision may be also swayed towards a call due to the different risk to reward ratio.
Double or Nothing SNG Strategy Summary
While DONs aren’t the most exciting form of poker available they can still be very profitable, and are certainly a low variance way to make a living. DON SNGs lend themselves to multi-tabling so you should mark the regulars as you will see them often and marking them should enable you to avoid particularly tough games. Adjusting to the unusual equities and bubble factors better than your opponents will ultimately lead to success in these tournaments.